Thoughts from the Munich Security Conference

I just returned to the United States from the Munich Security Conference (MSC), where I saw many old friends and met some new ones. Predictability, France and Germany continued the themes struck by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in Davos. To paraphrase: the Western world order is not in a reset, it is in a teardown. The tone of both speeches made it clear that Middle Powers are moving on. By the way, it is not just the leaders; during the Macron speech there was a man with a green hat in the audience which read “Make Europe Great Again.” I was struck by the nationalistic and emotional tone of these speeches.

Secretary of State Mark Rubio, tried to do a “clean up on aisle 4” presentation with the hopes of repairing some of the damage done by Vice President Vance’s 2025 Munich speech. My opinion: Rubio simply gave a kinder and gentler version of the same speech. Putting lipstick on that pig did not fool anyone. Yes, he received a standing ovation (and a “sigh of relief”), but the reaction among the attendees in the hall was “this is just more of the same” policies towards NATO and Europe. There was also a fair amount of discomfort with Rubio’s cultural tone.

Moving beyond the headlines, I was struck by the sheer number of bilateral discussions among attendees. One corporate executive told me he had 20 bilateral meetings (very popular guy). Senators were on panels and also held hundreds of bilateral meetings. All of these bilateral discussions are out of the public eye, yet they may be the most important thing that happens at the MSC. I always think about what we are not seeing and hearing in those meetings and the impact of those discussions on the future of global security.

I was there to help lead a discussion on resource competition and private sector investment. I started by suggesting that we are in a period of great uncertainty regarding the economic relationships between Western countries, particularly in the area of tariffs, international trade, and investment. Populism is winning, and the era of bilateral and certainly multilateral trade agreements that include the US is gone. Globalization is in the rear-view mirror.

I received a lot of pushback. The participants in this discussion were mainly business leaders and organizations that facilitate business investments. They simply believe that the death of globalization has been greatly exaggerated. It made me rethink my opinions, which is always good…but I still think I’m right. The one thing everyone agreed on is that China is the winner and the beneficiary of the American retreat from global investment.

On a personal note, it was great to see the McCain Institute and Jimmy McCain there representing the values of Senator John McCain. John would have been proud that his work in building the MSC continues.